NFL: These Games Don't Mean That Much

Seriously, they don't. I understand the need to extrapolate narratives from what we see. I really do, especially with the NFL, which is so massively popular and only has games once a week. But it's worth recognizing that the first half of the season just isn't that meaningful.

OK - so there are a few things we know: The Bills and Panthers are terrible. The Jets, Steelers, and Ravens are at least pretty good. It might be meaningful to be 0-5 if you're in a good division. But other than that...it's all up in the air.

This thought occurred to me I noticed that my excitement/disappointment meter was barely registering on Giants games. There are several reasons for this and I think one of them is that I internalized the results from recent years.

2007: Giants start 0-2, looking like the worst defense in the league. They need an excellent goal line stand to escape Washington with a win. They were up and down throughout the year, looking like a typical middle of the road team. Result: Super Bowl - greatest sporting moment of my adult life.

2008: Giants roar out of the gates, going 11-1, topping power polls and looking like world beaters. They sputter down the stretch after Plax's sweatpants incident, but still hold the #1 seed in the NFC East. They look lifeless in a home loss to Philly in their first playoff game. Result: Massive disappointment.

2009: Giants again roar out of the gates, going 5-0, by beating Dallas in a really good game their stadium opener and dismantling four inferior opponents. Again, they're topping power polls and looking like world beaters. By the end of the year, their defense, which looked extremely promising in the first 5 games, had transformed into a historically bad unit. They close out Giants Stadium in week 16 -- still in solid playoff contention -- with a 41-9 loss against a Carolina team that had nothing to play for. Result: Embarrassment.

And we don't have to go back nearly that far to demonstrate this point.

- Remember when the Texans were at the top of the power rankings? It was about 2 weeks ago. Now they might suck.

- Remember when the Giants were coming apart at the seams and Coughlin might be losing the locker room? Also 2 weeks ago. Now they might be as good as anybody in the jumbled NFC.

- Remember when the Bears were 4-1? They are. Right now. Does anybody think they're good? Throw the 3-1 Bucs and the 3-2 Jags in that mix as well.

- The 49ers are 0-5 right now. Their next 2 games are vs. Oakland and at Carolina. Would it be shocking if they won both? And if they do, would they be favorites to win that division? They might. People will be talking about, that's for sure.

Overreacting is part of the deal in sports -- fans, media, etc. It comes with the territory and a crusade to limit overreactions isn't exactly novel. What might be novel is a crusade to stop regular-reacting. And that's what I'm proposing. No drawing conclusions. No looking forward. Even viewing these games through a rational lens won't help in projecting what's going to happen. Injuries, momentum, scheme adjustments, fatigue, some would say parity (not me though) -- all this stuff causes the landscape to change quite a bit over the course of the year.

Now this is not to say that teams are definitely going to change course. The Steelers might end up going 14-2. The 49ers might really suck. Last year the Saints started out smoking hot and won it all, despite some hiccups at the end of the season. It's just to say that it's going to change -- and it's not going to take until Christmas for massive fundamental shifts to occur. It'll happen by Halloween.

And one prediction, just for the hell of it -- Hakeem Nicks is going to be a top 5 receiver in the league by next year.